Trump’s tariff revenue exposed, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 5

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly, with the Dow futures rising 0.04%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.14%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.24%. Germany's DAX index fell 0.37%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.04%, France's CAC 40 index fell 0.05%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.41%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Trump’s tariff revenue is exposed, and the Supreme Court ruling affects trillions of financial resources

⑴ As of August, the Trump administration has collected approximately US$90 billion from global tariffs, and these taxes are being reviewed by the Supreme Court. ⑵ Forecasts submitted by the U.S. government to the court show that cumulative tariff revenue will reach US$750 billion to US$1 trillion by June next year. ⑶The White House claims that trading partners have www.xmaccount.committed trillions of dollars in purchases and investments, but the specific implementation details are still unclear. ⑷ Trump once optimistically predicted that the amount of relevant www.xmaccount.commitments may reach 15 trillion US dollars, but there is huge uncertainty in the actual implementation. ⑸ There is a significant gap between the current revenue scale and the expected target, indicating that the actual effect of the tariff policy may not be as good as expected. ⑹The Supreme Court’s ruling will directly affect the realization of future trillion-level fiscal revenue and affect the direction of U.S. trade policy.

U.S. mortgage interest rates were basically stable

⑴The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States edged up to 6.31%, from the previous low of 6.3%, a more than one-year low. ⑵The number of mortgage loan applications fell by 1.9%, after a sharp increase of 7% in the previous week..1%. ⑶The number of refinancing applications decreased by 2.8%, and the number of home purchase loan applications decreased by 0.6%.

The Central Bank of Hungary maintains a tough stance and monetary policy enters a wait-and-see stage

⑴ The minutes of the October meeting of the Central Bank of Hungary showed that the decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged was unanimously approved by the Board of Governors. ⑵The Board of Governors unanimously believes that under the current changing environment, it is necessary to maintain a cautious and patient monetary policy attitude. ⑶ Central bank officials assessed that maintaining tight monetary conditions is fully reasonable, showing that fighting inflation remains the top priority. ⑷ Although many central banks around the world have started an interest rate cut cycle, Hungary still adheres to a hawkish stance, highlighting the seriousness of its inflation situation. ⑸The minutes of the meeting sent a clear signal that the possibility of policy change in the short term is low and interest rates will remain at restrictive levels. ⑹ The market needs to pay attention to subsequent changes in inflation data. Any unexpected upward movement may prompt the central bank to further extend the tightening cycle. ⑺ The policy differences between Hungary and other EU member states have intensified, reflecting the unique inflation pressure faced by the Central and Eastern European region.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae vetoed the food consumption tax reduction proposal

⑴Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae rejected the food consumption tax reduction plan proposed by the Cadet Democratic Party at the plenary meeting of the House of Representatives. ⑵ Regarding the issue of relaxing working time restrictions, she said that we will conduct in-depth discussions based on the current situation of working methods and actual needs. ⑶When asked about the possibility of reducing the number of seats in the House of Representatives and dissolving the House of Representatives within the year, Takaichi stressed that the current top priority is to deal with the problem of high prices. ⑷ She made it clear: "There is no time to consider the dissolution of the House of Representatives at this stage. The top priority is to promote countermeasures against high prices."

The defense minister said he would attack Hamas within the "yellow line" without restrictions

Israeli Defense Minister Katz said on November 5 that the Israeli army would destroy Hamas tunnels and attack its armed personnel "without restrictions" within the Israeli-controlled area ("yellow line") in the Gaza Strip. Katz emphasized that Israel's goal is to disarm Hamas, demilitarize the Gaza Strip, and return the remains of all Israeli personnel. According to Israeli estimates, there are currently about 200 Hamas militants hiding in tunnels in southern Gaza such as Rafah controlled by the Israeli army. They were unable to retreat to Hamas-controlled areas without being exposed to the sight of Israeli forces. At the same time, there is news that the United States is pressuring Israel to allow the safe withdrawal of these armed personnel in order to promote the ceasefire framework to the next stage.

Chevron is approaching the decision to expand production of Leviathan gas field, and a large order of US$35 billion is about to be landed

⑴ Chevron confirmed that it will make a final investment decision on the production capacity expansion project of Israel’s Leviathan gas field. ⑵ This gas field just signed the largest export agreement in history worth US$35 billion in August, which will provide Egypt with natural gas for a long time. ⑶ Chevron holds 40% of the shares as the project operator, and its investment decisions will directly determine the Mediterranean natural gas supply pattern. ⑷The production capacity expansion plan aims to meet the huge demand of the Egyptian market and highlight the strategic position of the Eastern Mediterranean as an alternative source of energy for Europe. ⑸After the final investment decision is approved, the project will enter substantial construction.establishment stage to drive investment in regional energy infrastructure. ⑹ This move will consolidate Israel's status as a regional energy exporter and change the natural gas market structure of the Eastern Mediterranean. ⑺ The market is paying attention to Chevron's capital expenditure plan, which reflects the international energy giant's strategic judgment on long-term natural gas demand.

British private sector economic activity regained momentum

⑴The UK's www.xmaccount.comprehensive PMI rose to 52.2 in October, a significant increase from 50.1 in the previous month, far exceeding market expectations of the initial value of 51.1 and 50.6. ⑵ The services industry expanded significantly to 52.3, offsetting the modest contraction in the manufacturing industry of 49.7. ⑶ Overall business activity accelerated despite uncertainties such as high interest rates, U.S. tariffs and the upcoming government budget. ⑷The number of employed people is close to stabilizing, almost ending the 13-month contraction. ⑸Companies generally report that they are facing pressure from rising labor costs and the increase in national insurance contributions in the last round of budget.

The German car market picked up in October, with new car registrations surged by nearly 8%

⑴The number of new car registrations in Germany in October reached 250,133, achieving a significant growth of 7.8% year-on-year, ending the previous fluctuation pattern. ⑵ This data confirms the continued improvement of the German automobile industry's prosperity and echoes the optimism shown in the earlier ifo survey. ⑶The rebound in registration volume shows that consumer confidence is gradually recovering. Despite the high interest rate environment, residents' demand for car purchases remains resilient. ⑷As the pillar of the German economy, the automobile industry’s recovery is expected to have a positive driving effect on overall economic growth. ⑸ The market is paying attention to whether this growth can be sustained, especially whether the improvement in chip supply can provide sufficient support for the increase in production. ⑹ If the recovery trend is established, it will alleviate market concerns about the European economic outlook and provide more space for central bank policy adjustments.

Business activity in the Eurozone hit the fastest growth rate since 2023

⑴The Eurozone www.xmaccount.composite PMI rose to 52.5 in October, exceeding the initial value of 52.2 and the September reading of 51.2. ⑵ This data sets the strongest expansion record since May 2023, showing that economic activity has accelerated significantly www.xmaccount.compared with the sluggish growth for most of 2025. ⑶Service industry activities accelerated sharply, and manufacturing output increased only slightly. ⑷ Increased demand supported the economic improvement, and new business volume grew at the fastest rate in two and a half years. ⑸Employment growth accelerated to a 16-month high, although business expectations for future activity moderated slightly. ⑹ Input cost inflation slowed for the second consecutive month, but output prices rose at the fastest pace in seven months, indicating that price pressures still exist in the services sector.

The European debt market is waiting for a break, with risk appetite and policy expectations www.xmaccount.competing fiercely

⑴ Euro zone government bond yields showed a consolidation trend on Wednesday, with hedging demand triggered by the sell-off of risky assets and strong economic data forming a balance of power. ⑵ The German ten-year government bond yield remained within a narrow range around 2.646%, and the interest rate-sensitive two-year yield remained stable at 1.998%. ⑶The Eurozone's www.xmaccount.comprehensive PMI hit a 28-month high in October. The recovery of the service industry and the rebound of the manufacturing industry jointly promoted accelerated economic expansion. ⑷The German service industry PMI jumped to 54.6, staying in the expansion range for three consecutive months, indicating that the European economic engine has regained momentum. ⑸ The European Central Bank's wage growth forecast remains moderate, and wage growth in 2026 is expected to first decline and then rise, providing a basis for maintaining the current interest rate policy. ⑹ The interest rate spread between the United States and Germany narrowed to 142.8 basis points, reflecting that market expectations for the policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank tend to converge. ⑺ The new bond issuance plans of France and Spain suppressed the performance of long-term yields, and supply pressure began to test the market's ability to undertake ⑻ The U.S. government shutdown continued to create a data vacuum, and European investors were cautious in planning amid lack of information, waiting for new direction guidance.

The EU climate goals have substantially regressed, and the 2040 emissions reduction plan has been significantly reduced

⑴The EU environment minister passed a weakened version of the 2040 climate goals on Wednesday, setting the collective emissions reduction target at 90% lower than 1990 levels. ⑵ The new agreement allows member states to offset 5% of their emission reductions through carbon credits, reducing the actual emission reduction requirements to 85%, which is significantly relaxed than the European www.xmaccount.commission’s original plan. ⑶The mid-term target for 2035 is set to reduce emissions by 66.25%-72.5%. At the same time, the carbon market plan originally scheduled to be launched in 2027 will be postponed for one year. ⑷This adjustment marks a shift in EU climate policy towards pragmatism and acknowledges the practical difficulties faced by member states in the energy transition process. ⑸The proportion of carbon credits used has been increased from the original 3% to 5%, leaving policy space for further relaxation to 10% in the future. ⑹ The Danish climate minister argued that the target still meets scientific requirements, but acknowledged the need to provide clear policy guidance to industry. ⑺ The agreement still needs to be approved by the European Parliament before it can take effect, and is expected to face strong opposition from Green MPs ⑻ This move may weaken the EU's leadership in global climate negotiations and cast a shadow over the upcoming COP30 climate summit.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1486, an increase of 0.03%. Before the New York market opened, (EURUSD) price showed limited range trading at the last intraday level, trying to digest its oversold status on the relative strength indicator, especially in the event of positive signals. On the other hand, the price continues to be under negative pressure below the EMA50, which reduces the chances of a price recovery in the short term, while the main bearish trend remains dominant in the short term.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3034, an increase of 0.10%. Before the New York market opened, in the latest intraday trading, (GBPUSD) price continued to fall and broke through the 1.3030 support level, which also corresponds to the target we expected in the previous analysis. The primary bear trend is dominant in the short term, while price is trading along major and secondary trend lines, which shows the volume and volume of the bear momentum.Strength, especially if the RSI shows a negative signal even though the price has reached oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 3966.45, an increase of 0.88%. (Gold) closed higher in the last intraday trade before the New York market, benefiting from a positive signal from the relative strength indicator, which had previously reached oversold levels and was firmly supported by the key support level of $3,950, thus gaining new bullish momentum, reaching the resistance of the EMA50, accompanied by a short-term test of the bearish corrective trend line, which forced it to stop rising and fall back, suggesting that a negative rebound may occur in the near future.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 47.710, an increase of 1.23%. Before the New York session, (silver) prices were under negative pressure at recent intraday levels, influenced by the EMA50 resistance, and the price entered overbought levels relative to the price action after the Relative Strength Index released the oversold condition, indicating that the bullish momentum may quickly weaken, while a bearish correction trend dominates in the near term, and trades with the support trend line of this trend.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 60.190, a decrease of 0.58%. Crude oil prices extended gains on recent intraday levels in the New York pre-market, supported by positive signals on the relative strength indicator, to surpass the resistance of the EMA50 and escape its negative pressure, especially as the recent performance points to the formation of a technical pattern to www.xmaccount.complete the short-term bullish corrective trend (symmetrical triangle pattern).

4. Institutional perspective

Nordic Bank: Denmark’s bonds due in 2035 show allocation value before the auction

Nordic Bank analysts Christian Peter Kjaer and Anders Skytte Aalund pointed out in the latest report that among the two Danish bonds to be auctioned by the bank on Wednesday, the one due in November 2035 is more attractive for investment, and they have a neutral view on the bonds due in November 2027 that will be issued in the same period. The report analysis believes that for investors who have www.xmaccount.completed hedging and financing arrangements, bonds due in 2035 can provide the most significant yield advantage. At the same time, analysts predict that the redemption of bonds due in November 2025 on the 15th of this month willAlthough the return has been fully priced by the market, the liquidity withdrawn by then may still bring marginal support to the Danish government bond market.

Institution: The trend of Americans "buying homes later" has intensified, and the median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to 40.

The latest "Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers in 2025" released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that the median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to 40, setting a new historical record. U.S. home prices and mortgage rates have soared in the past few years, forcing millions of Americans to delay home buying. Currently, the median price of second-hand houses in the United States is US$415,200, a surge of more than 50% from 2019; mortgage interest rates are also approximately twice as high as at the end of 2021. The report also shows that the U.S. housing market is showing a clear generational divide: it is increasingly difficult for young, cash-strapped groups to buy a house, while home buyers with greater wealth, usually older, can pay a higher down payment or even buy a house in full cash.

Agency: Indonesia’s growth concerns may push the central bank to further cut interest rates

Capital Economics’ latest report pointed out that although Indonesia’s GDP increased by 5.04% year-on-year in the third quarter, concerns about the sustainability of economic growth are continuing to intensify. Jason Tuvey, the agency's deputy chief emerging market economist, said signs such as slowing export growth and weakening consumer confidence indicate that economic momentum has weakened. The report believes that although inflation has picked up recently, with a year-on-year increase of 2.86% in September, as long as the inflation level remains within the central bank's target range, the Bank of Indonesia is expected to continue its loose policy and may cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points by the beginning of next year to support economic growth.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump's tariff revenue exposure, spot gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trend analysis on November 5". It is carefully www.xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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