The Governor of the Bank of England releases the dovish fog, analyzing the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 6

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.02%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.09%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.06%. Germany's DAX index fell by 0.08%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.37%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.44%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.04%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The Governor of the Bank of England released a dovish fog, and inflation in the service industry became an obstacle to interest rate cuts

⑴ Bailey pointed out that the CPI progress in the service industry has slowed down in recent months, and the rise in national insurance contributions will limit the decline in service price inflation in the www.xmaccount.coming months. ⑵ If managed prices remain stable, service industry inflation is expected to drop by another 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026. ⑶ He emphasized that economic activity has fallen below potential levels and there is a risk of "excessive cooling that lasts too long." ⑷Although it acknowledged that potential price pressures continued to ease, it clearly required that "a clearer downward path for inflation needs to be seen" before it will cut interest rates again. ⑸The inflation rate of 3.8% in September was confirmed as the peak, 0.2 percentage points lower than the August forecast, which is regarded as a positive signal. ⑹ Wage growth has shown signs of normalization, and the central bank predicts that this trend will continue to slow until 2026. ⑺ Bailey warned of the need to guard against the risk of second-round effects, emphasizing that "such risks have not disappeared." ⑻ The slowdown in the labor market has been confirmed by multiple data and will become a key force in curbing core inflation. ⑼Policy formulation will balance the dual risks of persistent inflation and economic overcooling, and households and businesses are advised to remain cautious. ⑽The process of falling inflation is being supported by slowing economic growth, but the service industry remains rigid.constitute a major obstacle.

ConocoPhillips bucked the trend and raised production target cost control to reshape the logic of energy stocks

⑴ConocoPhillips’ third-quarter net profit fell to US$1.7 billion (US$1.38 per share), a significant decline from US$2.1 billion (US$1.78 per share) in the same period last year. ⑵ However, adjusted earnings per share of US$1.61 far exceeded market expectations of US$1.41, and average daily production jumped to 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent. ⑶The www.xmaccount.company announced that the quarterly dividend will be increased by 8% to 84 cents per share, which will be distributed on December 1 to shareholders registered before November 17. ⑷The production target for the fourth quarter is set at 2.30 million barrels per day to 2.34 million barrels per day, maintaining a stable output level. ⑸The output forecast for fiscal year 2025 is raised from 2.30-2.37 million barrels/day to 2.375 million barrels/day, and the expansion against the trend demonstrates operational confidence. ⑹ The full-year operating cost forecast is lowered from US$10.7-10.9 billion to US$10.6 billion, demonstrating excellent cost control capabilities. ⑺The 2026 fiscal year plan shows that both capital and operating costs will decrease, and output will maintain stable to moderate growth. ⑻Capital expenditure for the Willow project in Alaska is locked at US$8.5-9 billion, while LNG capital expenditure is reduced to US$3.4 billion. ⑼ The North Field East project in Qatar is expected to be put into production in 2026 and will generate a cumulative incremental free cash flow of US$7 billion by 2029. ⑽The www.xmaccount.company recently sold AnadarkoBasin assets for US$1.3 billion, echoing its strategic direction of continuing to optimize its asset portfolio.

Private credit is encountering a crisis of trust, and market funds are quietly turning

⑴The bank-dominated liquid debt market is reactivated, private credit institutions are losing pricing advantages and investment channels, and listed credit funds are experiencing capital withdrawals. ⑵The stock prices of Apollo, Blackstone and KKR have fallen by an average of more than 14% in the past three months, while the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 10% during the same period, indicating a reversal of market confidence. ⑶The business development www.xmaccount.company has assets of US$155 billion, but its recent transaction price has fallen below its net asset value, and the discount phenomenon reflects the concerns of institutional investors. ⑷Although the actual default rate remains low - Fitch data shows that only 1.3% of BDC loans have stopped paying interest, risk warning indicators continue to deteriorate. ⑸ The proportion of in-kind payment revenue has climbed to 8%. If implicit adjustments such as debt restructuring are included, the actual disposal rate has exceeded 4%, twice the court default rate. ⑹ The advantages of public market financing costs are highlighted: the yield rate of junk bonds is about 6.7%, and the total yield rate of syndicated loans is 7.4%, both of which are far lower than the pricing of private credit loans of 9.5%. ⑺Enterprises are actively turning to cheap financing. In the third quarter, the volume of syndicated loans hit the third highest in history, 80% of which was used for debt restructuring, saving US$2 billion in annual interest expenses. ⑻ There is strong demand from institutional investors such as CLOs. In recent quarters, capital inflows exceeded loan supply by US$41 billion, accelerating the migration of funds from private equity to syndicated loans. ⑼ The volume of direct loans for mergers and acquisitions plummeted 24% year-on-year, and BDC was subject to falling interest rates and repayment waves. Many institutions such as Blackstone have cut dividends by more than 9%. ⑽ Market pricing indicates a period of earnings contraction, although the BDC index shows 10.8% yield, but the 8.1% discount to net asset value reduces the actual return to 9.9%.

The AI ​​wave swept the job market, and the layoff storm in October hit a new high in 20 years

⑴The number of planned layoffs in the United States surged 183% to 153,074 in October, setting a record for the same period since 2003. ⑵ The cumulative number of layoffs in the first 10 months of this year exceeded one million, soaring 65% www.xmaccount.compared with the same period last year. ⑶ Cost reduction has become the primary reason for layoffs, resulting in the disappearance of 50,437 positions, and artificial intelligence applications ranked second with 31,039 people. ⑷The technology industry is leading the wave of layoffs, with 33,281 layoffs in October, an exponential increase from 5,639 in September. ⑸Amazon recently announced that it would cut up to 14,000 corporate jobs, confirming the industry's shrinking trend. ⑹ Although the holiday season has driven a rebound in hiring intentions, the monthly average of 48,808 people is still significantly lower than last year’s level of 64,163 people. ⑺Small business jobs shrank for the first time since January, reflecting that economic headwinds are turning into actual hiring contractions. ⑻Experts point out that the triple pressure of high interest rates, tariff uncertainty and rising costs has forced the most resilient small and medium-sized enterprises to apply the brakes. ⑼ It is significantly more difficult for laid-off employees to re-employ, which may further promote the easing of the labor market. ⑽The market needs to pay attention to next week's non-agricultural data and changes in the unemployment rate. These indicators will verify the actual extent of the employment slowdown.

OPEC increased production slightly last month, and core members gradually restarted some suspended supplies

⑴ According to a survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased oil production slightly last month as core members began to gradually restart another part of previously suspended supply. ⑵In October, OPEC's daily oil production increased by 50,000 barrels per day, reaching 29.07 million barrels per day. Although output from major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia has increased, output from other member countries such as Libya and Venezuela has fallen, offsetting some of the increase.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, internal disagreements intensified

⑴ The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy www.xmaccount.committee voted 5-4 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4%, in line with market expectations. ⑵ Four members supported a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 3.75%, indicating increased support for loose policies. ⑶ Policymakers pointed out that CPI inflation has peaked and the potential deflation process is advancing, mainly due to the still restrictive policy stance, slowing wage growth and easing service inflation. ⑷ Economic weakness and labor market slack have further strengthened the deflationary trend. ⑸The www.xmaccount.committee believes that the risks to achieving the 2% inflation target are more balanced: concerns about the persistence of inflation have weakened, while downside risks from weak demand have increased. ⑹ Members emphasized that more evidence still needs to be obtained in two aspects, and future interest rate cuts will depend on data performance. ⑺If the deflation process meets expectations, the benchmark interest rate may be gradually lowered.

The U.S. government shutdown has left the outlook unclear, and the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate cuts in December

⑴ Simon Ballard and Almaha Al-Nuaimi of First Abu Dhabi Bank said that the U.S. government shutdown and the interruption in the release of official economic data, making the outlook more www.xmaccount.complicated and unclear, and could lead the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cuts next month. ⑵ Two analysts pointed out that the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown may strengthen the Fed's reason to "press the pause button" in December - no matter how strong the objections raised by Governor Milan. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also hinted that a December rate cut was "not a done deal" after last week's 25 basis point rate cut.

The European Central Bank’s strong entry into the euro repo market is ushering in a reshaping of the landscape

⑴ The European Central Bank will officially join the Eurex centralized clearing repo market in the first quarter of 2026. This is the first time a central bank has participated in transactions on this platform. ⑵ At present, the European Central Bank and central banks in the Eurozone only lend securities to the market, and the new measures will upgrade some businesses to a centralized clearing model. ⑶The centralized clearing mechanism can effectively reduce counterparty risks and improve the stability of the entire financial system. ⑷As a key link in the financial system, the repo market assumes the core function of exchanging cash and high-quality bond collateral. ⑸ Since the European Central Bank raised interest rates to a positive range and started shrinking its balance sheet, the activity of the euro zone repo market has increased significantly. ⑹ The outstanding trading volume of the European Futures Exchange platform has increased by approximately 50% since the end of last year, indicating that market expansion is accelerating. ⑺ Institutions such as the German Bundesbank are already members of this market, and the addition of the European Central Bank will form a www.xmaccount.complete echelon of central bank participation. ⑻ This change will enhance market liquidity supply, especially in short-term capital markets such as overnight trading. ⑼ Institutional investors should pay attention to possible adjustments to collateral standards, which will affect the pricing mechanism of high-quality bonds. ⑽ The market needs to predict changes in the liquidity structure after the implementation of the policy in early 2026, and inter-bank financing costs may further diverge.

The Canadian energy giant’s output broke records, with a net profit of 1.8 billion Canadian dollars in the third quarter

⑴ Canadian Natural Resources www.xmaccount.company achieved an adjusted net profit of 1.8 billion Canadian dollars in the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.86 Canadian dollars, demonstrating strong profitability. ⑵ Production in the quarter reached a record high of 1.62 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the continued improvement in upstream mining efficiency. ⑶ The www.xmaccount.company raised its full-year production guidance for 2025 to 1.56-1.58 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a significant increase from the previous forecast, indicating an acceleration of business expansion. ⑷Despite increasing the production target, the 2025 working capital budget remains unchanged, proving that the www.xmaccount.company is achieving cost reduction and efficiency improvement through operational optimization. ⑸ North American energy www.xmaccount.companies have achieved a balance between capital discipline and production growth, which provides a successful model for supply-side management in the global oil and gas industry.

There is a sudden wave of price cuts for crude oil in the Middle East! Saudi Aramco's bargaining detonates the market

⑴ Saudi Aramco lowered its official selling price to Asia in December on Thursday, setting the benchmark Arabian Light crude oil price at a premium of US$1 to the Oman/Dubai average price. ⑵ This price adjustment marks Saudi Arabia’s first price reduction since October, after the official selling price remained stable in November, reflecting the world’s largest crude oil exporter’s cautious judgment on the demand outlook. ⑶The price of Arabian medium and heavy crude oil has been reduced by US$1.4 respectively, and now has a premium of US$0.05 www.xmaccount.compared with the benchmark.Yuan and US$0.1, while Arabian Ultralight dropped US$1.2 to a premium of US$1.3. ⑷The spot market weakened in response, with the cash Dubai swap contract premium falling 23 cents to $1.03, showing signs of loosening in physical demand. ⑸Unipec’s sale of crude oil for January shipment to Trafigura further confirms that Asian buying interest has weakened, and the crude oil market may face a new round of supply and demand rebalancing.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1533, an increase of 0.35%. Before the New York market opened, (EURUSD) price cautiously rose in the latest intraday trading, trying to correct the main bearish trend in the short term, but as it still trades below the EMA50, negative pressure persists, which reduces its chances of a near-term rebound. In particular, the Relative Strength Index has reached excessively overbought levels www.xmaccount.compared to price action, showing the formation of a negative divergence, further increasing downward pressure in future trading.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3097, an increase of 0.36%. Before the New York market opened, (GBPUSD) price rose in the latest intraday trading. This was due to the stability of the 1.3030 support level, which allowed it to gain some bullish momentum, thus achieving a partial recovery and making up for some of the previous losses. The rise pushed the Relative Strength Index into overbought territory, exaggerating relative to the price movement, suggesting bull momentum could be fading quickly. In the short term, the primary bear trend is dominant, while the price is trading along both the primary and secondary trend lines, which is also supporting this move.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4015.11, an increase of 0.91%. Pre-market in New York, the (gold) price strengthened its gains in the last intraday session, surpassing the resistance of the EMA50, in an important step beyond the negative pressure. On the other hand, we noticed the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicator, reaching exaggerated overbought levels www.xmaccount.compared to the price action, which indicates the beginning of a negative divergence. These mixed signals make the near-term expectations more uncertain.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 48.632, an increase of 1.34%. In the latest intra-day session in New York pre-market, the price of (silver) rose, influenced by the dynamic support represented by its price trading above the EMA50, and broke out bearishly in the short term.The trend line is corrected to break the current resistance at $48.25. On the other hand, we note the emergence of negative signals on the Relative Strength Index, which may reduce its future gains after reaching overbought levels.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 60.130, an increase of 0.91%. Prices (crude oil) were trading choppy at their last intraday levels in New York pre-market, trying to alleviate some of those conditions after reaching oversold levels following a positive signal from the relative strength indicator. However, downward pressure remains as the price continues to trade below the EMA50, which further reinforces the stability of the major downtrend in the short term and trades in tandem with the trendline.

4. Institutional view

ING: The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is currently expected to stabilize above 4%

Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin Schroeder of ING said in a report that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield "currently appears to be content with levels above 4%."

These interest rate strategists said: "U.S. Treasuries are treading water and should have performed better on Tuesday, a safe-haven day." U.S. Treasury yields ended lower on Tuesday, but the decline was small. The strategists added that the 10-year Treasury yield "is not at particularly high levels." U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 1.9 basis points to 4.070%, according to Tradeweb data.

Capital Economics: Norges Bank is in no rush to cut key interest rates

Capital Economics said that Norges Bank is clearly in no rush to cut interest rates again and expects the next rate cut to be in March. The central bank did not publish new forecasts, but forecasts in September suggested the next rate cut would www.xmaccount.come in the second half of next year.

"If inflation data continues to be below its expectations, which we think is most likely, the bank may act sooner," said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief economist for the euro zone. However, any action will be gradual, and Capital Economics sees little reason for policymakers to cut interest rates further significantly, so the next rate cut is likely to be the last in this cycle.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The Governor of the Bank of England released the dovish fog, analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 6". It was carefully www.xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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