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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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CATEGORIES
News
- The daily gold line of Dayang is above the 10 moving average, and it continues t
- Fed policy bets boost Australian dollar, U.S. economic data weak
- RBA cuts 25 basis points, beware of today's CPI accident
- The yen is under pressure under trade tensions and the Bank of Japan dovish stan
- Where does gold fall back to bullish?
market analysis
Multiple sets of data were shocking, but geopolitical accidents caused oil prices to hold key support?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Multiple sets of data are shocking, but geopolitical accidents make oil prices hold key support?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday during the Asia-Europe session, oil prices continued to hit the bottom, and market sentiment continued to be under pressure. There was no rebound despite the sharp drop in oil prices late on Wednesday, highlighting that the current market is deeply trapped in a game pattern of signals of weak demand and continued supply concerns.
Subsequently, oil prices were stimulated by the news of Israel launching air strikes in southern Lebanon. Oil prices quickly rebounded from panic lows and embarked on a V-shaped reversal trend. At one time, they quickly stretched 1.7% from -0.3%. They are currently trading around 60.08, up 0.79%. Here's some information on the recent pressure on oil prices.
Core driver: the two-way pull of demand and supply
On the demand side, investors are still cautious about the prospects for global economic growth, especially in Asia, where slowing industrial activity and weak energy consumption continue to suppress market expectations.
At the same time, the strong performance of the U.S. dollar index has further intensified the downward pressure on oil prices, making U.S. dollar-denominated crude oil less attractive to holders of non-U.S. currencies.
In this context, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) are maintaining market stability through supply control - after planning to increase production slightly in December, they will suspend subsequent production increases in early 2026.
However, recent oil price trends indicate that if demand fails to materially pick up, OPEC+'s enforcement of production cuts may not be able to provide effective support for oil prices in the short term.
Inventory signal: U.S. inventories unexpectedly increased, bearish sentiment increased
At the inventory level, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories were expected to rise.The increase in external earnings further strengthened the market's bearish sentiment.
At the same time, the direct trigger that triggered the latest round of selling in the market was the weekly report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday night. Data show that U.S. www.xmaccount.commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 5.202 million barrels in the week ended October 31, which was in huge contrast to the market’s previous consensus estimate of a “slight increase of 600,000 barrels.”
Rising U.S. crude oil inventories usually mean weak demand from refineries or increased inflows, both of which will suppress upward momentum in oil prices.
In addition, as the output of non-OPEC oil-producing countries continues to expand, coupled with the weakening capacity of Asian refineries to absorb new crude oil, a mild oversupply pattern is emerging in the global oil market.
Therefore, in the absence of strong demand catalysts or sudden supply interruptions, traders have not shown any willingness to actively push prices up. The market is currently in a wait-and-see situation, waiting for clear directional signals to be released.
U.S. crude oil production has hit a record high driven by efficiency improvements
Since the beginning of this year, U.S. crude oil has fallen by more than 15%, falling to a level that has hit the profitability threshold of small oil producers, and this decline has not yet taken into account the expectation of the largest oversupply in global history next year.
Despite this, domestic crude oil production in the United States has not slowed down, but has continued to reach historical peaks. This trend may cause oil prices to face further downward risks in the www.xmaccount.coming months.
Angie Gildea, head of KPMG’s U.S. energy business, pointed out that crude oil supply is continuing to benefit from significant improvements in production efficiency. Although the number of active oil drilling rigs has decreased, crude oil production has not declined simultaneously.
Technological iteration enables www.xmaccount.companies to achieve higher production output with less investment in drilling platforms and resources.
Baker Hughes data shows that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States has dropped by 65 since the beginning of this year. The weekly data as of October 31 shows that the number of drilling rigs has dropped by another 6 month-on-month to 414.
However, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that as of the week of Halloween, U.S. daily crude oil production climbed slightly to a historical peak of 13.651 million barrels/day. Monthly data released at the end of October also showed that daily crude oil production in August reached a historical high of 13.794 million barrels/day.
Resilience of oil producers: There is still some profit from discounted sales
Some energy analysts believe that the break-even price of U.S. oil producers (the core price covering production costs) is in the low range of 60 US dollars per barrel, and U.S. oil prices have already touched this level;
But for some leading www.xmaccount.companies, the break-even price may be only about half of this level. Tim Horan, chief investment officer of wealth technology www.xmaccount.company Orion, said the break-even cost of some specific areas and wells can be as low as $30/barrel.
KPMG's Gildea said that most www.xmaccount.companies have built endogenous resilience and are relatively able to withstand the impact of short-term price fluctuations. If oil prices maintain their current levels, "superThe scale effect formed by the giants allows them to continue to maintain the current production level."
Holland emphasized that for oil producers, the key is not the market price of a single barrel of crude oil, but the marginal cost of extracting the next barrel of crude oil. This indicator is the core factor driving capital allocation decisions.
p>Analysts generally believe that in order for U.S. oil producers to significantly reduce production, an extreme environment in which demand shrinks significantly and oil prices are significantly lower than current levels is required.
For shale oil www.xmaccount.companies, it will be difficult for most www.xmaccount.companies to maintain profitability if oil prices remain below $50 per barrel. However, the current break-even costs of large oil producers in core areas have dropped significantly, and their ability to withstand fluctuations has increased.
Usually in a low oil price environment, the rational choice for shale oil producers is to "focus on restraint rather than blind expansion". Capital efficiency and balance sheet health are their key factors. Core operating creed.
Independent energy expert Anas Alhaji added that low oil prices mainly affect investment decisions, rather than directly affecting production decisions. As the scale of investment is reduced, production may gradually decline, but the current oil price is far from falling below operating costs in 2020, and Long-term projects such as the Gulf of Mexico are less affected by short-term price fluctuations.
Simon Wang of Gabelli Fund pointed out that some www.xmaccount.companies have previously locked in high prices through hedging, which has supported the release of new production capacity. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will still have a slight upside, and shale oil production may be at the end of this year or tomorrow. Gradually stabilizing at the beginning of the year
Outlook:
Unexpected declines in inventories or sudden geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, Nigeria and other places may trigger a phased rebound in oil prices.
Simon Wang pointed out, “Excluding demand related to global GDP growth. "After seeking uncertainty," the first quarter is usually a seasonal off-season for demand.
Under the dual pressure of excess supply and weak demand, oil prices are likely to fall further.
Technically, oil prices continue to stay above 59.40 and 58.48 (of course, they stay above 60 Above the integer mark), these two supports are still valid, and oil prices are expected to continue to consolidate above them, and wait for the moving average to be consolidated before continuing to launch an upward attack.
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