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The U.S. dollar's rising momentum is gradually weakening, and the range is mainly volatile.

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The momentum of the US dollar's rise is gradually weakening, and the range is mainly volatile." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

During the European trading session on Thursday (November 6), the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is currently trading around 99.95, falling slightly after Wednesday's fluctuations. The dollar retreated from recent highs as traders digested mixed U.S. economic data and investors turned their attention to major central bank meetings.

At the same time, the October ADP employment change data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data released on Wednesday performed better, further weakening the market's dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

The CME Fed Watch tool shows that the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting has dropped to 62.5% from 68.6% on Tuesday.

ING International Group (ING) believes that the U.S. dollar’s rally momentum is weakening, but the market also lacks strong driving factors to rebuild short U.S. dollar positions. The lack of data and the cautious tone of www.xmaccount.communication from the Federal Reserve mean that it is difficult to have a clear catalyst in the short term. The U.S. dollar is expected to show a range-bound trend today, and the short-term overvaluation still puts it at risk of a correction.

Overseas Chinese Bank (OCBC) believes that the dollar’s rebound has www.xmaccount.come to an end. "The market as a whole still maintains an upward momentum, but the relative strength index (RSI) has shown signs of turning from an overbought state. Continue to pay close attention to judge whether the rebound of the US dollar has www.xmaccount.come to an end."

U.S. data released mixed signals on Wednesday

The U.S. ADP non-farm payrolls change data was unexpectedly positive. 42,000 new jobs were created in October, higher than the 32,000 expected.The previous decrease of 29,000 has rebounded sharply.

However, this improvement was not enough to trigger continued strength in the US dollar, as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4, only slightly higher than September's 50.0, indicating a moderate economic expansion.

Subsequently, President Trump's remarks had limited impact on the market, and traders were still waiting for more specific policy clues.

The focus turns to the Bank of England and US data

On Thursday, the market focus will turn to the Bank of England's (BOE) policy report and Governor Bailey's speech. The market expects the Bank of England to maintain the official benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, and the voting result is expected to be 0-3-6 (support for raising interest rates - maintain unchanged - support for cutting interest rates), showing that despite the weak economic growth in the UK, there is still cautious optimism. At the same time, the market will pay close attention to its signals of future interest rate hikes or dovish adjustments.

Japanese officials continue to test the market through verbal intervention, but in the absence of practical action support, such measures often gradually fail over time. If risk aversion fails to effectively boost the yen, USD/JPY is expected to see more upward speculation and test the Bank of Japan's tolerance range (155.0 is obviously the key target).

In the United States, the speech of Federal Open Market www.xmaccount.committee (FOMC) member Waller later today, as well as the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to be released on Friday (expected to be 53.0, lower than the previous value of 53.6), will affect the short-term momentum of the US dollar. Overall, traders remain cautious due to uncertainty over the direction of the U.S. dollar due to divergent monetary policies and slowing global economic growth.

Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar index hovered around 99.95, falling slightly after failing to hold the 100.35 resistance level. Price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (around 99.23), with key supports at 99.67, 99.46 and 99.25.

If it falls below 99.25, it may further correct to 98.57 or even 98.09, and the 200-period exponential moving average (98.88) will provide dynamic support. The relative strength index (RSI) of 55 shows momentum cooling, with limited upside unless bulls regain the 100.35-100.65 range.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The U.S. dollar's rising momentum is gradually weakening, and range fluctuations are the main focus". It is carefully www.xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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market analysis

The U.S. dollar's rising momentum is gradually weakening, and the range is mainly volatile.

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The U.S. dollar's rising momentum is gradually weakening, and the range is mainly volatile.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason