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The U.S. dollar index fluctuates above the 100 mark, and Trump’s probability of winning the U.S. tariff case decreases

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The U.S. dollar index fluctuates above the 100 mark, and the probability of Trump winning the U.S. tariff case decreases." Hope this helps you! Original content is as follows:

On November 6, spot gold was trading around US$3,970 per ounce. Despite the strong US ADP private employment data, gold prices still strengthened significantly on Wednesday driven by safe-haven buying, rising by more than 1%. Global stock market shocks and concerns about AI stock bubbles jointly stimulated safe-haven demand; US crude oil traded around US$59.63 per barrel, and oil prices hit their lowest closing price in two weeks on Wednesday. Market concerns about global oil supply glut continue to ferment, becoming the main factor suppressing oil prices.

The U.S. dollar remained fluctuating near a five-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, with strong economic data continuing to support the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index was basically unchanged at 100.16 on the day, maintaining its highest level since late May.

Data showed that the number of private jobs in the United States increased by 42,000 in October, far exceeding expectations. At the same time, service industry activity also showed a rebound, which eased market concerns about an economic slowdown. Strategists noted that strong labor data weakened the case for aggressive monetary easing and investors were reassessing the outlook for interest rates.

Risk sentiment picked up in the foreign exchange market during the session, with the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rebounding 0.3%, while the safe-haven Japanese yen gave up its earlier gains.

The market is paying close attention to the U.S. Supreme Court’s hearing on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which may reshape the global trade and exchange rate pattern. The pound has taken a breather after recent weakness as the market awaits interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Norway's central bank.

Asian Markets

According to Reuters on Thursday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hoxby (Christian Hawkesby said the deterioration in the country's labor market was in line with the bank's expectations. It www.xmaccount.comes after data this week showed New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2016 in the third quarter. "It's tough out there, and that's to be expected with where we are in the economic cycle," Hoxby said.

The latest foreign trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus in September expanded to 3,938 million month-on-month, www.xmaccount.compared with expectations of 3,850 million and the previous value of 1,111 million (revised from the previous value of 1,825 million).

Further details showed that Australia's exports increased by 7.9% month-on-month in September, after falling by 8.7% (revised to -7.8%) the previous month. Meanwhile, imports increased by 1.1% month-on-month in September, www.xmaccount.compared with 3.3% growth in August (revised from 3.2%).

European market

Producer prices in the Eurozone fell slightly in September. PPI fell by -0.1% month-on-month and -0.2% year-on-year, in line with market expectations.

The decline was mainly due to weaker energy prices, which fell -0.2% for the month, while intermediate and capital goods prices remained stable. Among consumer goods, durable goods rose 0.3%, while non-durable goods edged up 0.1%.

Across the EU, producer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, indicating only a modest rise in cost pressures. Bulgaria and Finland (-0.7%) recorded the largest monthly declines, while Romania (+1.2%), Estonia (+0.7%) and Lithuania (+0.4%) posted the largest increases.

Business activity in the Eurozone accelerated strongly in October, with the final value of the HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index at 53.0, the highest level in 17 months, higher than 51.3 in September. The www.xmaccount.composite Purchasing Managers Index also climbed to 52.5, a 29-month high, indicating the region's strongest pace of expansion since early 2023. The rebound in major economies has been broad-based, but there remain significant differences, with Spain and Germany leading the improvement, while France continues to lag.

Among various countries, Spain topped the list with a www.xmaccount.composite PMI of 56.0, a 10-month high. Germany's index surged to 53.9, its highest level in 29 months, followed by Ireland (53.7) and Italy (53.1). In contrast, France fell further into contraction, falling to 47.7, an eight-month low.

Cyrusdela Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg www.xmaccount.commerzbank, said the rise in the services sector was supported by the strongest new business growth since May 2023. The increase in orders has encouraged www.xmaccount.companies to hire more workers, raising hopes that expansion can continue through the end of the year.

Service cost inflation eased slightly, but selling price inflation rose, suggesting www.xmaccount.companies are regaining some pricing power amid stronger demand. For the ECB, PMI dataIt does not pose a direct inflationary threat.

The UK services sector showed encouraging signs of recovery in October, with the services PMI ultimately at 52.3, up from 50.8 in September. The www.xmaccount.composite Purchasing Managers Index also rose to 52.2 from 50.1.

Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the latest survey "provides some positive signals" as both output and new business growth accelerated significantly from September lows.

Service providers reported strong customer demand and a pickup in new orders, especially in the domestic market. Many www.xmaccount.companies cited resilient consumer spending and an upturn in winning new customers as key drivers of October's improvement. The data also suggested the labor market was stabilizing, with layoffs slowing sharply and business expectations rising to 12-month highs.

While rising wages are still pushing up costs, the overall pace of input inflation fell to its lowest level since November 2024. Sales prices rose at the slowest pace since June.

U.S. market

The U.S. services sector expanded at the fastest pace since February, signaling that much of the economy is regaining momentum. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.4 from 50.0 in October, above expectations of 50.8.

The report showed that business activity rose to 49.9 from 54.3 and new orders surged to 50.4 from 56.2, a clear indication that demand remains resilient. The employment index improved slightly to 48.2 from 47.2, but was still in contraction, indicating that service providers remain cautious about hiring.

However, the most worrying thing is the price, which rose from 69.4 to 70.0, hitting the highest level since October 2022 and staying above 60.0 for the 11th consecutive month. This points to continued inflationary pressures in the sector.

According to ISM data, the October reading was equivalent to an annualized increase in U.S. GDP of approximately 1.2%.

U.S. private sector employment increased slightly in October, with ADP reporting an increase of 42 jobs, slightly higher than the 32 expected. That's the first increase since July and suggests hiring has stabilized after months of weakness. However, the pace of job creation remains well below levels seen earlier this year, suggesting the labor market is cooling rather than collapsing.

Industry data shows 33 new service jobs and nine goods production jobs. Large www.xmaccount.companies (+73k) drove most of the gains. Layoffs continue at small, medium (-10k) and mid-sized (-21k) www.xmaccount.companies. Wage growth remained stable, with the number of retained workers increasing by 4.5% year-on-year and the number of migrant workers increasing by 6.7% year-on-year, both unchanged from September.

Overall, the data suggest hiring is stabilizing at lower levels, consistent with the Federal Reserve's goal of cooling the economy without triggering widespread unemployment.

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